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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 44

Houston Texans 24 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to TEN 1, Center-46-J.Weeks. 36-L.Sims to TEN 12 for 11 yards (52-B.Mingo, 33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +0.90 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP