Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 60

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(5:12) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.01 EP
55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model