Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

(4:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to HOU 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-31-K.Byard.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.36 EP
54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model