Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to NO 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on NO-34-J.Hardee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model