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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 58

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to NO 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Harris to NO 12 for 2 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.89 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model