Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 8-R.Sanchez punts 4 yards to IND 43, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-26-C.Geathers. PENALTY on IND-20-J.Wilkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 43. NO 27-D.Washington deflected IND 8-R.Sanchez's punt.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.62 EP
76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model