Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 27

(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Hilton (23-M.Lattimore).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.76 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP

KICK -1.31 EP

35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
65% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP

Chose GO ✓ matched the model