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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 34 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to IND 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.70 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP