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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 29 yards to NO 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP