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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 7

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 4-D.Prescott right guard to LA 5 for 2 yards (90-M.Brockers). Quarterback sneak.

The Three Options

GO +3.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.54 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model