Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(6:43) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short left to 88-M.Thomas to LA 39 for 5 yards (26-J.Jones). FUMBLES (26-J.Jones), RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at LA 37. 92-D.Armstrong to LA 37 for no gain (48-T.Howard). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short left to 88-M.Thomas to LA 39 for 5 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

What Happened

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.84 EP
52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model