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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 80

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Dallas Cowboys 34

What Actually Happened

(13:52) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 69 yards to DAL 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-T.Austin to DAL 19 for 8 yards (88-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model