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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 24

Dallas Cowboys 34 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(6:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model