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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to LA 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-N.Webster ran ob at LA 22 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.97 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model