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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 35

New England Patriots 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 14-M.Sanu Sr..

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.61 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model