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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:14) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to NE 30 for no gain (71-D.Shelton; 51-J.Bentley).

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.17 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model