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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 22

New England Patriots 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 2-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.48 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model