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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 64

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to BAL 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 22, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model