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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 87

Baltimore Ravens 21 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to NYJ 38, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Berrios to BAL 41 for 21 yards (57-J.Bynes).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.48 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 87, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model