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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 60

New York Jets 7 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(11:53) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to BAL 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.17 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP