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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 28 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews to NYJ 35 for 36 yards (27-D.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.50 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model