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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 60

New York Jets 7 – Baltimore Ravens 35

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to BAL 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-16-J.Smith. New York Jets challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 14:06.)

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.62 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model