Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 42 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(5:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to NYJ 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 40 for 19 yards (10-C.Moore). PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine Sr., Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.16 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model