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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 41

New York Jets 21 – Baltimore Ravens 42

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 82-J.Crowder (44-M.Humphrey) [45-J.Ferguson].

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.61 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model