Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 86

Detroit Lions 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(12:47) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to TB 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-J.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.14 EP
61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model