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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 26

Detroit Lions 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.79 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model