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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 9-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.73 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model