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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 3-J.Winston up the middle to TB 47 for 2 yards (51-J.Tavai).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.18 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model