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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 63

Detroit Lions 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 6-S.Martin punts 62 yards to TB 1, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-J.Dean MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at TB 1.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.45 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model