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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 52

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 4-A.Lee punts 21 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.37 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP