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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to ARI 38, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper ran ob at ARI 45 for 7 yards (42-D.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.23 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model