4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 12-P.Cooper to SEA 33 for 14 yards (42-D.Hill).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.53 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model