Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-D.Moore to SEA 46 for 16 yards (29-C.Edmonds; 59-J.Walker). PENALTY on SEA-28-U.Amadi, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.94 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model