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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-R.Green), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee, RECOVERED by SEA-27-M.Blair at SEA 38. 27-M.Blair to ARI 16 for 46 yards (87-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model