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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 12

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model