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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to ARI 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-27-M.Blair.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.93 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP