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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 6 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 7-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to BAL 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 35 for no gain (12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.94 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 38, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model