4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 6 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 16-D.Thomas ran ob at BAL 37 for 7 yards (30-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model