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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 6 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 7-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to BAL 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.81 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model