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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 7-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to BAL 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.20 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model