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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 63

New England Patriots 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to BUF 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.96 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model