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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 41

New England Patriots 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(:36) 15-N.Harry left end to BUF 41 for no gain (29-K.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.45 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model