Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 54

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 10

(13:19) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to NE 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to NE 23 for 7 yards (29-K.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.13 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model