Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 63

New England Patriots 13 – Buffalo Bills 17

(4:56) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to BUF 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts ran ob at BUF 27 for 17 yards (50-C.Winovich).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model