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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 17

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.17 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model