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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 2

New England Patriots 13 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.81 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP