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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(3:08) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left tackle to NE 28 for 2 yards (33-J.Williams). BUF-60-M.Morse was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.56 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model