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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Beasley (27-J.Jackson) [58-J.Collins Sr.].

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.42 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.07 EP