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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to NE 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.18 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model