Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 94

Miami Dolphins 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 60 yards to CIN 34, Center-46-T.Pepper. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at MIA 49 for 17 yards (42-P.Laird). PENALTY on CIN-29-T.McRae, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.75 EP
62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 94, worth -5.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model